Demonstration datasets

Data upload

Uploaded data preview

This is a data set of daily maximum temperatures (0.1 °C), from 1951 – 2013 (inclusive), recorded in Reykjavik, Iceland.

This is a data set of daily snow depths (cm), from late 1976 – 2013 (inclusive), recorded in Svalbard Airport, Norway.

This is a data set of daily total sunshine hours (0.1 hours), from 1971 – 2013 (inclusive), recorded in Ogulin, Croatia.

This is a data set of daily sea level pressures (0.1 hPa), from 1850 – 2001 (inclusive), recorded in Armagh, United Kingdom.

Identify the date-stamps

Date-stamp previews

Raw date-stamp values found in the selected column (first 6 only)


              
Interpretation of the (first 6) selected date-stamps. These should appear in the format, "Saturday, 03 May 2025 at 00:23:37".

              

            

          

          

          

            

              

                
Identify the data values

                

                  
                  

                    
                    
                  

                

                

                  

                    
                  

                

                

                  

                    
                    
                  

                

              

            

            

              
Data previews

              
Raw data values found in the selected column (first 50 only)

              

              

                
                rows of data to be used in the analysis.
              

              

                
                rows of missing data have been removed.
              

            

          

          

            

              

            

          

          

            

              

                

                  
                  

                    
                    
                    
                    
                    
                    
                  

                

              

              

            

          

        

        

          

            
Threshold Selection

            

              

                

                  
                  

                    
                    
                    
                  

                

              

            

          

          

            

              
            

            

              

                

                  

                  

                

                

                  

                    

                    

                  

                  

                  

                    

                    

                  

                  

                    

                    

                  

                

                

                  

                    

                    

                  

                  

                    

                    

                  

                  

                  

                    

                    

                  

                  

                    

                    

                  

                  

                  

                    

                    

                  

                  

                    

                    

                  

                  

                  

                    

                    

                  

                  

                    

                    

                  

                

              

            

          

        

        

          
Dependence

          

          

            

              

                

                  
                  

                    

                      
                    

                    

                      
                    

                    

                      
                    

                  

                

                

                  

                    
                    
                  

                

              

            

          

        

        

          
Run MCMC

          

            

              

                
Prior specifications

                

                  Scale Parameter \(\sigma\)
                  
                

                

                  

                    

                      
                      
                    

                  

                  

                    

                      
                      
                    

                  

                

                
                  Note: we will now work with \(\eta = \log(\sigma)\) to ensure that \(\sigma\) is positive.
                  
                
                

                

                  Shape Parameter \(\xi\)
                  
                

                

                  

                    

                      
                      
                    

                  

                  

                    

                      
                      
                    

                  

                

                

                
Tuning Parameters

                

                  

                    

                      
                      
                    

                  

                  

                    

                      
                      
                    

                  

                  

                    

                      
                      
                    

                  

                

                

                  

                    
                    Pilot scheme reccommended for long schemes. Runs 1000 iterations with no thinning and a burn-in of 200.
                  

                

              

            

            

              

                
Pilot Run: Parameter Analysis

                

                  

                

                
                  Note: acceptance probabilities should be between 20
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                  30% for an optimal scheme.
                
                

                

                  Pilot Parameter Plots
                  
                

                

                  

                    
                  

                

                

                  

                    

                  

                  

                    

                      

                    

                    

                      

                    

                    

                      

                    

                  

                  

                    

                      

                    

                    

                      

                    

                    

                      

                    

                    

                      

                    

                    

                      

                    

                    

                      

                    

                    

                      

                    

                    

                      

                    

                  

                

                

                  

                    
                  

                

                

                  

                    

                  

                  

                    

                      

                    

                    

                      

                    

                    

                      

                    

                  

                  

                    

                      

                    

                    

                      

                    

                    

                      

                    

                    

                      

                    

                    

                      

                    

                    

                      

                    

                    

                      

                    

                    

                      

                    

                  

                

                

                  

                    

                      
                    

                  

                  

                    

                      

                    

                    

                      

                        

                      

                      

                        

                      

                      

                        

                      

                    

                    

                      

                        

                      

                      

                        

                      

                      

                        

                      

                      

                        

                      

                      

                        

                      

                      

                        

                      

                      

                        

                      

                      

                        

                      

                    

                  

                

              

            

          

          

            

              

                
Duration

                

                  
                  
                

                

                  
                  
                

                

                  
                  
                

                
              

            

          

          

            
Parameter Analysis

          

          

            

          

          
            Note: acceptance probabilities should be between 20
            –
            30% for an optimal scheme.
          
          

          

            

              \(\eta\) Parameter
              
            

            

              The acceptance probability for \( \eta \) is 
              
            

            

              

                
              

            

            

              

                

              

              

                

                  

                

                

                  

                

                

                  

                

              

              

                

                  

                

                

                  

                

                

                  

                

                

                  

                

                

                  

                

                

                  

                

                

                  

                

                

                  

                

              

            

            

            

              \(\xi\) Parameter
              
            

            

              The acceptance probability for \( \xi \) is 
              
            

            

              

                
              

            

            

              

                

              

              

                

                  

                

                

                  

                

                

                  

                

              

              

                

                  

                

                

                  

                

                

                  

                

                

                  

                

                

                  

                

                

                  

                

                

                  

                

                

                  

                

              

            

            

              

              

                \(\theta\) Parameter
                
              

              

                The acceptance probability for \( \theta \) is 
                
              

              

                

                  
                

              

              

                

                  

                

                

                  

                    

                  

                  

                    

                  

                  

                    

                  

                

                

                  

                    

                  

                  

                    

                  

                  

                    

                  

                  

                    

                  

                  

                    

                  

                  

                    

                  

                  

                    

                  

                  

                    

                  

                

              

            

          

        

        

          
Return Levels

          

            

              
Return Level Analysis

              

                

                  
                

                

                  

                

              

            

          

          

            
Standard Return Level Distribution

            

          

          

            

              
Predictive Return Level